Woe is Citeh
On Man City's form, emergent dilemmas, and how Pep Guardiola may manage everything to secure silverware by the end of the 2023/24 season
Nearly every season in recent times, Manchester City seem to hit some form of early-to-mid-season speed bump, only to pull everything together by the run-in, winning silverware in what seems like inevitable fashion.
In the 2020/21 season, it was a string of results including a 5-2 loss to Leicester, 2-0 loss to Spurs, and 1-1 draw to West Brom (after which City sat ninth place in the league), only to win 21 straight in all competitions and be 14 points clear in the league by mid-February.
In the 2021/22 season, City sat third after Gameweek 10, only to storm to an 11-point lead by mid-January then stave off a Liverpool team that took 50 of their final 54 points in the league (thanks to İlkay Gündoğan’s heroics on the final day).
Last season, in 2022/23, it was the drama surrounding João Cancelo’s abrupt departure along with back-to-back losses to Southampton and Man United in mid-January (the former of which Pep deems “the worst game” in his time at the club), only to win the treble with what felt like sheer dominance.
Three turnarounds, in one form or another.
Three consecutive Premier League titles for City.
I think you get the script.
No matter what issues this team seems to face in November, December, or January, everything works itself out by the run-in.
Manchester City, “The Inevitables.”
So, after a run where City only took 12 points from nine league games (their worst nine-game stretch in a single PL season since 2016/17) and going winless in four straight league games (for the first time in Pep’s stint at City), is there any reason for City supporters to panic?
Well, after an alarming display at Villa Park, without the likes of Jack Grealish and Rodri, pessimism amongst Cityzens was at an alarming high.
After a sounder display at Kenilworth Road, the nerves have calmed to a degree, however a cloud of concern certainly remains.
Yet, the short answer to that question is no, there is certainly no need to sound the alarm. Despite the eyebrow-raising statistics which accompany this run of form, we have more or less seen this script before.
At the same time, as much as having Pep Guardiola as manager or Kevin De Bruyne soon returning from injury is enough to stifle any true panic, City are facing several issues which indicate this season may not be as inevitable as what we have all grown accustomed to.
So, perhaps the more important question is not necessarily if this is the time to panic, but what Pep and City must do to ensure these issues do not justify any signals of panic bubbling to the surface.
In the remainder of this piece, I am going to assess just that, discussing how three key dilemmas will come to define City’s season and speculate on how City may address those factors in the coming months.
#1: The Indispensable Rodrigo Hernández Cascante
The man who clinched City’s treble, Rodri has grown to become an undeniable force in European football.
A rarely injured midfield maestro, the Spaniard has been the glue that holds this City team together over the course of the past three-and-a-half seasons – quite seamlessly taking over the defensive midfielder role as club legend Fernandinho gracefully departed from the club.
Yet, until recent times, Rodri’s importance has been quite drastically understated.
Over the course of this calendar year, Rodri has seemingly risen from “just another player in Pep Guardiola’s City side” to a bonafide superstar.
First, with his contributions to City’s treble-winning season. Next, with his countless “Man of the Match” performances to start the 2023/24 season. Then, finishing fifth for the 2023 Ballon d’Or behind Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and Kevin De Bruyne.
Yet, despite all that, Rodri’s presence was not fully appreciated until we all saw the void left in his absence – after a three game suspension due to an uncharacteristic red card and a one game suspension due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
In all four of the games Rodri was suspended for, City lost.
(A 1-0 loss to Newcastle in the EFL Cup, a 2-1 loss to Wolves in the league, a 1-0 loss to Arsenal in the league, and a 1-0 loss to Villa in the league.)
To add to the extremity of the situation, in Rodri’s last 44(!) matches for City in all competitions, the team is unbeaten – 35 wins and 9 draws.
If there was any dispute as to who City’s most important player is, I think it is safe to say that debate is now put to rest.
Even with the monumentality of figures like Haaland or De Bruyne, Rodri trumps them all when it comes to sheer impact on City’s results.
Now, it is easy enough to look at the stats and come to that conclusion, but the more important questions are why is that the case? And how may City address this dilemma in order to lessen the disparity between a City side with Rodri and a City side without him?
The first question has a relatively simple answer: the gap in performance between Rodri and his deputy is far greater than any other pairing at City.
When Haaland is absent, as he was due to a foot injury against Luton, City have arguably one of the next best strikers in the league, in Julián Álvarez, to take his place.
When De Bruyne is absent, as he has been so far this season, City have the world class talent of Phil Foden to lean on as their creative hub.
When Rodri is absent, City lack a clear-cut defensive midfielder to command the midfield and set the attacking tempo – and that is an issue, clearly.
Of course, we can first point to the objective failure of the Kalvin Phillips transfer.
Ahead of last season, City signed the Yorkshire man for £42 million from Leeds United. Yet, Phillips only started four games in all competitions for City all season and has more or less been kicked to the curb by Pep ever since.
Then, we can point to the semi-questionable moves of City’s summer window just gone by. Most notably, with Gündoğan departing for a new challenge at Barcelona – a player who would deputize for Rodri as the defensive midfielder with great success in seasons past.
Whether City could have done more to keep Gündoğan at the club is a question we will never fully know the answer to. Yet, once the German did leave the club, City failed to find a suitable replacement as Rodri’s positional understudy.
While missing out on top targets Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice, City signed two midfielders: Mateo Kovačić and Matheus Nunes. Two players who thrive as forward-thinking #8’s, best operating with positional freedom ahead of a deeper-lying defensive midfielder. The two have been rather brilliant in their own right, yet neither are able to fill the void left whenever Rodri is unavailable.
This issue is best represented by City’s midfield in the recent 1-0 loss to Aston Villa. With Kovačić and Nunes only just returning from minor injuries, Pep put out a midfield consisting of John Stones as the #6 (a centerback, by trade), Julián Álvarez and Rico Lewis as the two #8’s (a center forward and a fullback, by trade), and Manuel Akanji as a fourth midfielder, at moments (another centerback, by trade).
A midfield without any true midfielders.
Who are you and what have you done with Pep Guardiola?
Jokes aside, it goes to show just how dire City’s midfield situation is when Rodri is absent; and despite his impressive availability throughout his City career, there will always come moments when he is unavailable (especially because he will be suspended for two domestic games if and when he receives four more yellow cards before April).
Planning for the worst case scenario, we have to ask: what if Rodri were to pick up an injury going into the final stretch of the season?
What if Rodri were to be unavailable for a Champions League Semifinal tie?
Regardless of how likely that is, it is a possibility; and City are a smart enough club to understand you always have to operate with a Plan B, a Plan C, a Plan D, and so on.
Seemingly the only clear-cut solution: City should sign a player with the ability to deputize for Rodri in the fast approaching January transfer window.
The logical question that follows is “who?”
Perhaps the most difficult aspect of this search is the fact Rodri is not going anywhere, with a contract at City through the 2026/27 season.
So, whoever City sign needs to not only be able to deputize for Rodri, but to be able to play alongside him, as well – just as Gündoğan did.
In terms of complementing Rodri in midfield, we have to look at what (very few) weaknesses the Spaniard has. Most notably, out of possession defensive ability.
While Rodri is incredibly well-rounded, his most vital flaw is often covered up by the amount of possession City have and the rigidity of structure City are able to form out of possession. Yet, in moments when Rodri has to break play up – especially in transition – those flaws are revealed.
Viewing a new midfield signing as both an adjunct to the relatively passive Rodri and a deputy in the moments he is missing, the type of player City are looking for is already a rather narrow search: a duel-winning midfielder who can operate as both a #6 and a #8, with a certain level of presence, authority, and arrogance.
I’ll quickly discuss three names that have been swirling around the City tactical community for some time: Amadou Onana (of Everton), Mats Wieffer (of Feyenoord), and Martin Zubimendi (of Real Sociedad).
[Image credit: datamb.football “Player Comparison” tool]
Let’s start with Onana, the 22-year-old Belgian who is my pick of the bunch.
Taking a look at the chart above, Onana offers in abundance qualities Rodri does not. He is the most elite of duel-winners and is uninhibited in engaging in defensive actions (sometimes to his detriment).
Listed at just over 6’ 1”, he is a formidable presence with long legs that allow him to stifle opposition passing lanes and cover ground with exceptional speed.
He has a season and a half of Premier League experience, playing as both a #6 and a #8 throughout his time at Everton. He does not necessarily have the statistical well-roundedness of Rodri as a ball-playing midfielder, but his decision-making and temporization (the ability to effectively utilize time) on the ball is already excellent.
For me, Onana is the sort of player City should be after.
Next, we have Wieffer, the most well-rounded fit for City, on paper.
A 24-year-old without a significant weakness, the Dutchman is not only exceptional off the ball (playing for an energetic high-pressing side under manager Arne Slot), but a composed progressor on the ball.
As I have only watched Wieffer play a handful of times, I’ll refer to an excellent scouting report put together by @SerbFootyScout on X (Twitter).
“He's comfortable as a front-footed ball-winner, ready to pounce on the opposition’s transition or looking to feed off of the scraps the initial press presents him.”
“Safe to say he's much more impactful as front-footed defender than as a more static one, sitting deep.”
“A player who'll never take a touch more than is necessary & even tries to find smart solutions with a single touch whenever he can.”
From those descriptions, he seems like a brilliant fit for what City are after.
Yet, I must say I have two reservations about Wieffer, given my rather limited knowledge.
The first is about positionality: I’m not quite sure Wieffer has the positional flexibility to play as a #8 ahead of Rodri. Alongside him in a double pivot, yes, but ahead of him as an attacking-minded midfielder, probably not.
The second is about the primary weakness @SerbFootyScout calls out:
“If there’s one defensive aspect he struggles with, it’s runners coming towards him. Low tackle percentage and can get caught like a deer in headlights at times.”
When City are looking for a midfielder who covers Rodri’s deficiencies, bringing in a player who is also relatively weak in transition does not make so much sense.
Lastly, I’ll throw in one more name for a slightly different reason: Zubimendi.
Whereas Onana and Wieffer are largely complementary to Rodri’s passivity, Zubimendi is a true #6 who is far more alike Rodri than he is dissimilar.
A player of his prototype begs the question: what if instead of finding a player with the versatility to both deputize for and play alongside Rodri, City simply pursued an understudy.
The glaring issue with that idea is logistical.
A Rodri understudy would more or less sit in his shadow for the next three seasons. It is an idea better suited for a year or two in the future, not right now. Yet, nevertheless, it is an interesting proposal.
Especially given Zubimendi is 24, it does not make all that much sense (not to mention he has a release clause around £75 million).
Yet, should Rodri ever sustain a long-term injury (knock on wood), a like-for-like deputy would fill his void better than a hybrid deputy would.
Perhaps that is an idea to keep on the back burner.
Whichever way City go, one thing is clear: this team is not the same when Rodri is not on the pitch.
Given Rodri’s importance, unless Pep has the utmost confidence in the ability of someone like Stones to grow into a true #6 role, finding a suitable addition in the January transfer window is paramount – it could make or break City’s chances at winning silverware.
#2: Jérémy Doku and Misshapen Identities
From a staple in City’s side to a bright and fresh newcomer, let’s talk about the 21-year-old who has taken the Premier League by storm.
That would be Jérémy Doku, the scintillating Belgian winger signed by City from Stade Rennais in late August.
In a team with electric attacking starboys like Haaland, Foden, and Álvarez, Doku had a moment when he took the spotlight from them all.
The common footballing fan may question how and why Doku’s introduction to City could cause any issues. On the surface, you are adding one of the most talented wingers in the world to a team that just won a treble. Not only that, but he has performed rather exceptionally, tallying seven goal contributions in just 11 league appearances.
Is that not all positive?
Sadly for us City supporters, no. It is not all butterflies and rainbows.
The reason being, as exceptional as Doku is at many facets of the game and as impressive as he has been throughout his City career so far, he drastically changes the complexion of City’s attack.
A change of that magnitude is not something you resolve overnight.
Anyone expecting Doku to seamlessly integrate into City’s system or to have labelled his start to life in Manchester as that is in over their heads.
The core issue at hand is Doku’s direct style of play is nearly the antithesis of the slow, methodical build-up we are so accustomed to seeing from City.
Doku’s decision-making and ability to pick the right moment to attack has been impressive, there is no denying that, but there is only so much decision-making can compensate for, in terms of bridging the gap between his tendencies and those of the squad around him.
However, that is not to say Doku needs to better conform to City, that relationship is a two-way street. It is simply to say Doku has not fit City like a glove. You can very much tell he is the new guy on the block, and that is alright (he is only 21, mind you).
Despite City’s reign of success or how many characterize Pep’s approach to football, they are not some stylistic monolith. The complexion of the attack has changed from the days of Sterling, Agüero, and Sané to the days of Grealish, Haaland, and Foden, and we will continue to see it develop over time.
The key point here is just how drastic Doku’s unparalleled “x-factor” has taken the team by storm and how that dynamism is (at least, for the moment) seemingly unsupported by the outfit around him.
I mean that last bit in two senses:
1. While Doku’s decision-making has been applaudable, the patternation (or lack thereof) with which he goes about his actions is so unique and unpredictable (the same qualities which make him so difficult to defend) that his teammates can not always anticipate what he is about to do and therefore, become less effective as an overall unit.
2. Given the drastic differences between how Doku and Grealish undertake the left wing position, City are “caught in two minds,” to steal the popular commentary phrase. When you are playing with an ultra-direct winger on Sunday and an ultra-conservative winger on Wednesday, it becomes difficult to maintain rhythm.
Just as Doku’s unpredictability on the ball is both a strength and a weakness, so too is having a contrasting set of winger options.
On the positive side of things, if City develop a way to alternate between the two seamlessly, it creates massive issues for their opposition. I mean, imagine preparing for Doku all week only to face off against Grealish, or vice versa. Of course, professional managers are not as daft as that, though it does give them twice the workload in many facets of planning.
For City, this dynamism is a relatively new experience. Of course, the attack has undergone transformations before, but balancing two contrasting styles of play is a different undertaking altogether.
Though, with time, you would not put it past Pep and the squad to figure it all out. For that reason, as will be comforting for City supporters to hear: Time should prove to be the aiding factor.
For example, Doku and Haaland will certainly develop better chemistry and more repeatable patterns of play as they spend more time on the pitch together (that goes for whoever is playing in the left half space or on the left side of defense, as well).
Especially when we look back at the timeline of City’s past title comebacks, this narrative fits in. It is simply how the cycle works.
Refresh in the summer. Experiment in the fall. Solidify a core strategy in the winter. Execute the run-in to near-perfection in the spring.
The “Doku Dilemma” fits right into that.
Whichever way the tides may turn, you can be sure Pep will have shaped the identity of this City side to be recognizable, repeatable, and above all effective come the run-in.
I also should not fail to mention Kevin De Bruyne here, as he is the only player to have prior experience with Doku. You would expect Pep to look to gain socio-affective superiority (connecting those players who identify and understand each other well) by using De Bruyne as the key link to building stronger on-field relationships between Doku and his teammates.
Not only is De Bruyne a key figure in bridging the gap between Doku and the squad on a social level, but on a tactical level as well.
When De Bruyne returns, Pep will once again have an all phases midfielder with an enormous gravity and elite qualities in transition at his disposal.
Of course, at this point in his career De Bruyne often operates more advanced than the phrase “all phases midfielder” would suggest. However, he remains the key figure when it comes to linking City from back to front.
Not to harp on Álvarez’s ability as an attacking midfielder, but as a like-for-like replacement in City’s current structure, De Bruyne’s movements and creative range will unlock potential combinations Álvarez simply can not unlock.
Imagine De Bruyne carrying the ball through the center of the park with Doku to his left, Haaland ahead, and Foden to his right – now put six defenders behind them and good luck coming away with a result against City.
Yet, there is inherent risk in relying on an injury prone 32-year-old to act as the keystone holding everything together.
Even if De Bruyne stays fit following his return, he will not be able to start every game and he may not even be able to start two out of every three games.
In some form or another, even if De Bruyne’s return is as crucial as I make it out to be, Pep and City need to clarify the methods through which they utilize Doku.
This is where the big question comes in:
Is the introduction of Doku indicative of a shift in the ethos of Pep’s City or is he more simply a cog in a larger machine?
If you were to ask myself that question right after Doku signed in August, I would have leaned towards the latter. I mean, look at Haaland’s integration last season. One of the most unique footballers in the entire world seemed to have to conform to the system around him, not the other way around.
Yet, after quotes such as “The style is Jeremy [Doku] one versus one, the skills… the quality for some players can be more direct.” from Pep, it begins to seem like City are adapting to Doku more so than Doku is adapting to City.
It is a clear shift of identity from “control” to “directness” (to summarize it all with a few buzzwords); and right now, City are caught right in the middle of this change.
What this all entails, for the remainder of the season, is where Pep will land in his stylistic intentions, how the remainder of the squad will be able to adjust their roles in order to support this new identity (or whether they are able to oscillate between multiple identities), and just how crucial De Bruyne’s role as social and tactical connector can and will be.
#3: John Stones, Kyle Walker, and Defensive Balancing Acts
While I believe the primary issues revolving around Doku’s integration will smooth over rather gracefully with time, there is one dilemma in particular City are facing which I’m not so sure time provides the answer to.
That would be City’s defensive composition, specifically with regards to Stones and Walker (though for drastically different reasons).
Let’s start with John Stones, the man made of glass.
After rising to become one of the central figures in City’s treble-winning run, taking over the innovative inverted role from Rico Lewis then putting up performances such as he did in the Champions League Final, Stones cemented his place at the top of City’s defensive totem pole.
The only issue is Stones is not reliable (not to any fault of his own), having missed out on almost five months of action over the past two seasons.
Including a recurring hamstring injury last season and a hip injury this season, Stones now has 12 notable injuries (>one week unavailable) since signing for City just over seven years ago, according to transfermarkt. On average, Stones has missed out on nearly 42 days of action per season at City.
Last season, the 3-2 build-up emerged as City’s go-to defensive structure. With greater support in the midfield and a system designed to subdue any opposition counterattacks in the wide areas, City mitigated much of their transitional issues and increased their dominance over game state.
This season, with Stones injured since early August, we saw Pep experiment with various defensive iterations – including a 3-2 with a midfielder joining Rodri in the pivot (rather than a defender) and a box-and-one with both fullbacks acting as placeholder wingers in possession.
Both of which align with the idea this is Pep’s “experimental” phase of the season.
Though in the past month or so, it seems Pep and City have struggled to find the right balance in terms of defensive structure, often relying on Akanji as a Stones placeholder in a half-3-2 structure (I say “half” as Akanji’s midfield positioning is often deeper than how Stones or Lewis occupy the role).
In that period, City’s defense have shipped 10 goals in four games.
This begs the question: Have Pep and City become overly reliant on a player who is regularly unavailable for selection?
It is one thing for a player to be injury prone, there is only so much they can control.
It is another thing for a team’s system to be reliant on that player’s availability.
Such is the territory Pep and City are nearly entering.
Whether you want to attribute City’s recent defensive woes to the absence of Stones, lapses in performance from those on the pitch, or simply variance, it does not change the fact it simply is not good enough for the standards of City under Pep.
As good as Akanji has been for City and as decent as he has been in the inverted role, he is simply not performing to the bar Stones and Lewis have set.
Not only that, by utilizing him in the inverted role, Pep loses the option to play him as the wide right defender – a role he has excelled in time and time again.
While Stones is fit, there are no issues with City’s go-to defensive structure, it would be criminal to argue otherwise, given what we saw City achieve last season.
Yet, when Stones is not fit, City’s defense needs to reach a greater level of security.
Because, who is to say Stones does not get injured again in February, March, April, or May? History would say there is a decent likelihood of that occurring.
If that does happen, Pep needs to have an established system he can rely on. Whether that means relying more heavily on Lewis, hoping Akanji improves in the inverted role, or altering the system altogether, I’m not so sure.
Speaking of altering the system altogether, we must speak on Kyle Walker.
Last season, Walker started 25 of City’s 41 Premier League or Champions League games, or 61.0%. This season, that figure has risen to 95.2%!
Why such a drastic change when the only defenders the club sold this summer were Cancelo (who coexisted with Walker last season before his departure) and Laporte (who was a rotational player who hardly ever impacted Walker’s selection)?
Well, Walker was injured for about a month and a half early on last season, so we can bump that 2022/23 figure up to around 75.0%. Plus, we know the absence of Stones has in many ways impacted Pep’s rotational options.
Yet, despite those circumstances, it still seems like a significant increase.
Besides the absence of Stones, it is difficult to attribute that change to anything other than the transfer developments that occurred this summer.
As noted earlier, Gündoğan (City’s club captain) departed. In turn, after Walker remained at City following a transfer saga with Bayern Munich, he moved up the leadership ranks and has acted as club captain, ostensibly until De Bruyne returns.
The issue many (including myself) hold with this development is threefold:
1. Most importantly, Walker is better utilized as a rotational option and specialist (to stifle elite left wingers) than a week-in, week-out first-choice option at this stage in his career.
2. Walker’s attacking abilities limit the effectiveness of whichever player is playing on the right flank (typically Bernardo or Foden).
3. Walker does not have the right temperament to represent the side as the club captain, nor should that give reason to start him more often than if he wasn’t the captain.
I will admit, these concerns are relatively minor, though they feel exaggerated given the circumstances we find ourselves in. We may or may not be criticizing Walker’s contributions if City had not put in as poor of performances as they have recently, though we can not use that doubt to suppress the opinions we have formed through watching those results.
As much as Walker’s underlying numbers are more or less on par with the likes of Manuel Akanji and Joško Gvardiol, there are qualitative weaknesses in Walker’s game many take issue with.
In the attacking third, his range of passing and technical execution is severely limited.
His most memorable successful action in the final third is an outside-to-inside diagonal run with one of the holding midfielders (typically Rodri) playing a long ball over the top of the defense.
This was especially apparent early on in the season, when Walker was acting as a makeshift right wing, however it has failed to be executed consistently since he dropped back to a deeper role.
Other than that, the majority of memories that come to mind of Walker taking part in the final third are either failed crosses, errant shots, or moments when he recycles possession backwards.
The main issue with this is not necessarily the expectation for Walker to be an elite attacking outlet, but the expectation for him to support the right winger to a greater degree.
As of early November, City’s right attacking third of the pitch has created less than 20.0% of the team’s total chances – the lowest figure in the entire league (via Opta Analyst).
While this imbalance seems heavily impacted by Walker’s presence to the eye, we must also remember two factors discussed earlier in this piece: City’s reliance on Doku and the absence of De Bruyne.
Perhaps the true issue resides not in an overcompensation in favor of Walker’s continued use, but an overreliance on Doku and a lack of creative presence in the right half space.
Yet, even though my contestation of Walker’s spot in the team has cooled, in the spirit of this being the “experimentation” portion of the season, many of us will still be wishing to see a variation of this side without the veteran, sooner rather than later.
I guess we can not judge the full picture until we see what life would look like without Walker. Though, just as City may have an overreliance on Stones relative to his availability, City may have an overreliance on Walker relative to his ability.
Whether that thought is a rash reaction or a valid argument, no one will know until we see otherwise – and that is something that will not automatically heal with time.
All in all, while City’s start to the season has been one marred by injuries, speed bumps, and a record-setting run of disappointing form, there is not much to suggest any of that hinders City’s chances at silverware this season.
Just like the past three, title-winning seasons, these obstacles are par for the course.
Refresh, experiment, solidify, execute – the pattern of City’s recent success.
Yet, even so, this season seems just a tad bit different.
With Arsenal, Liverpool, and even Aston Villa breathing down the champion’s neck, the pressure is well and truly on Pep and his side to perform.
While some issues will require reinforcements (such as the lack of a true deputy for Rodri), some issues will require time (such as the integration of Doku into the side), and some issues will require tactical and selection-based adjustments (such as the overreliance on Stones and Walker), no one would put it past the one and only Pep Guardiola to turn the ship around.
Will City’s brilliant flame finally begin to dim or will the Sky Blues of East Manchester continue to pave history?
As the maxim goes, only time will tell.
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